The Ganaraska Region Conservation Authority advises a low-pressure system is set to bring rain and mild temperatures to the region Friday night (March 6), through Saturday (March 7, 2026). Temperatures may reach above 10°C during the day and will remain above zero overnight, leading to continuous melting of the snowpack for several days. A second low-pressure system is set to arrive on Tuesday (March 10) and Wednesday (March 11) of next week before temperatures drop below freezing again.
Flood Potential: Low
Issued: March 6th, 2026 at 10:00 a.m.
The forecasted rainfall amounts are between 10 and 20mm by Saturday with some models suggesting additional rainfall of 20mm with embedded thunderstorms. The continuous melting of the snowpack will add runoff to local streams for the next six consecutive days. Recent snow surveys indicate that snowpacks are currently holding 80 to 180mm of water, which has become dense and ready to contribute runoff to local streams.
In addition, most streams in the region have significant ice cover, which will begin to break up and flow downstream especially during high flows. When this happens, there is potential for ice-jamming to occur with flooding directly upstream. Typical ice-jam locations such as the lower Ganaraska River should be monitored closely over the next several days.
Forecasts currently indicate another 10mm of rain for the second storm event on Tuesday night. While significant flooding is not currently anticipated, ponding is likely on roadways where snowbanks block runoff and ice-jam related flooding along water courses is possible during these events.
Over the next six days, higher than normal water levels and flows will occur in local streams, and ditches. In addition, slippery stream banks and fast flowing, cold water will create hazardous conditions around all water bodies, especially in the vicinity of culverts and bridges.
All ice cover on streams, lakes and ponds should be considered weak and extremely hazardous. Please exercise caution around all water bodies and alert any children in your care of these hazards.
This Watershed Conditions Statement will be in effect until Thursday, March 12th, 2026 at 12 p.m. Conservation Authority staff will continue to monitor watershed conditions and provide updates as necessary.
Note: A Watershed Condition Statement for Flood Outlook is issued as notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
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Should you have any questions or wish to report flooding, please contact the following GRCA staff (listed below) at 905.885.8173.
Mike Smith
Flood Operations Officer
Cory Harris, P.Eng.
Flood Forecasting & Warning Supervisor